Cake is a bakery treat that often gets invited to an event, whether it be a birthday celebration, holiday gathering, or other special occasion. While sales in the category have cooled slightly, producers have been working hard with creative flavors, better-for-you twists, and other innovations to keep the party going.

Market data
According to Chicago-based market research firm Circana’s data from the 52-week period ending February 23, 2025, most subcategories in cakes saw declines in sales, from slight to moderate. With center-store cakes overall, for example, sales for the year stood at $602.2 million, representing a 9.1% drop compared to the year before; and unit sales were about 181.4 million, 8% less than the previous period.

When looking closer at the c-store subcategories:

• Layer cakes took in $27.4 million, 10.9% less than the prior period; top-ranked company Grupo Bimbo brought in $26.1 million (a drop in dollar sales of 12.5%), and second-ranked company Royal Kosher saw an increase of 32.5%, with a modest dollar-sale figure of $491,698.
• C-store specialty products dollar sales dipped 8.3% to hit $20.3 million. The leading company in the subcategory, Bauducco Foods, sold $14.4 million (8.2% less than the previous period); Grupo Bimbo ranked second, with its $3.3 million for the 12-month period constituting a 7.1% loss.
• The subcategory encompassing angel food, bundt, and sponge cakes in the center store attained dollar sales of $258.5 million, 12.3% less than the previous period. J.M. Smucker was top-ranked in the column, with dollar sales of $212.9 million (a 13.7% decline). However, private-label sales in the subcategory soared 365.6% to reach $2.1 million.

Source: Circana OmniMarket™ Total Store View | Geography : Total US - Multi Outlet w/ C-Store (Grocery, Drug, Mass Market, Convenience, Military and Select Club & Dollar Retailers) | Time : Latest 52 Weeks Ending 02-23-25

Overall, cakes sold in the store perimeter fared relatively better than their c-store counterparts, in terms of declines in dollar sales, then again in units sold. Those cakes hit $6.2 billion, a healthy figure constituting a 0.8% increase, in dollar sales; unit sales climbed up by the same percentage to hit 803.4 million.

As for the perimeter cakes subcategories:

• Layer cake dollar sales inched up 4.8% compared to the previous year to hit $1.9 billion, and unit sales increased by 3.5% to reach 224.4 million. Private-label layers led the way in dollar sales, with $1.7 billion (a 5.8% leap). Rich Products came in second, with its $28.6 million in sales amounting to a 9.8% decline.
• Perimeter cheesecakes raked in $651.6 million for the 52-week period, a dip of 2.2%. However, many of the producers ranked in the subcategory increased their dollar sales—for example, Rich’s total of $3.3 million amounted to an increase of 88.9%; Eli’s Cheesecake hit $4.5 million, or an increase of 3.3% compared to the previous year-long period.
• Sheet cakes sold in the store perimeter dropped by 7.4%, reaching $596.3 million. Once again, private label led the way with the bulk of the subcategory’s sales ($558 million a 7% decline). The most notable percentage gain among ranked companies was Twinstar Bakery, with its $12 million in sales totaling 20.7% more than last year. The biggest loss, sadly, went to Dessert Holdings (60% less than the previous period, or $2.1 million).

Current trends
In past years, consumer interest in bakery products that offer a balance of indulgence and better-for-you benefits has increased. Current trends in cakes—according to Ashley Hornsby, director of brand management with Flowers Foods—are in line with that ongoing interest.

“While there's growing interest in clean label ingredients, premium flavors, and snackable formats, one of the biggest trends we're seeing is a demand for nostalgic and comforting flavors. Classic flavors like chocolate, vanilla, cinnamon and birthday cake continue to resonate as consumers seek treats that remind them of childhood. There's something about familiar flavors that bring back happy memories, and we see this playing out in snack cakes, where people want a taste of the past with the convenience of today's snacking habits.”

Sarah Duff Zupancic, director of marketing for Eli’s Cheesecake, concurs with the assessment that a mix of familiar and innovative elements are at play.

“We're continuing to see desserts following the newstalgia trend—it’s still going strong!” she observes. “Consumers are looking to make an emotional connection, and we can achieve that with flavors that remind them of a different time.”

In addition to the product attributes consumers look for, the occasions in which cake items are enjoyed has continued to evolve. Katelyn MacKrell, associate customer marketing manager with Rich Products, says in addition to bigger celebrations like birthday shindigs and family holiday parties, people are enjoying smaller gatherings, like game nights and TV watch parties.

“These get-togethers might have a small cake that’s appropriate for a smaller party, or they might use a small cake as a centerpiece to convey a message but surround the cake with portioned desserts that are easy to eat while walking around and mingling with friends,” she says.

MacKrell shares Rich’s conducted a survey that reflected this shift toward smaller parties has been accompanied by an increased preference for platters loaded with proportioned bits of cake, rather than traditional servable desserts.

“If you’re hosting a party, it’s much easier to put out a tray of portable desserts like cookies or brownies that you don’t need plates and forks for and it’s especially easier for guests at a party to pop a bite-sized dessert in their mouth than it is to hold a plate and fork while playing games or watching a movie,” she relates.

On the foodservice side, Sarah Billingsley (senior marketing associate with General Mills) says cakes served in restaurants and other establishments need to take more than the folks that eat the cakes into account.

“From a consumer perspective, trends may come and go but we remain focused on helping bakeries and foodservice operations to create the foundation for great cakes with our line of time-trusted Pillsbury mixes and iconic Gold Medal flour, which help bakeries achieve consistent and quality results,” she notes.

In addition to giving customers what they want, Billingsley states, producers aiming for foodservice should consider making the most of customers’ time.

“We have seen a greater need for versatile, consistent products that solve back-of-house constraints such as staffing and time—it is important for operators to have products that are easy to work with, allowing them to provide the best experience for their guests,” she says. “And of course, we always strive to provide a delicious product that everyone will enjoy.”

MacKrell says Rich’s also has endeavored to provide cake products that help in-store bakers and similar customers save labor while enticing customers with creative touches.

“We launched a full line of Signature Ready Cakes last year (filled and base iced cakes) that remove labor at store level,” she reports. “Retailers can now use their labor to add finishing touches vs. spending so much time on base icing cakes that consumers won’t give them credit for.”

What’s ahead
Billingsley says General Mills constantly works to ensure its future product offerings (in cakes and across bakery) are on trend.

“General Mills Foodservice has a robust Consumer Insights team that helps to keep a pulse on industry trends and share insights and data backing on trends to help guide us to the right product developments in the future,” she says. “We also have a dedicated team of culinary professionals, the Chefs of the Mills, who work alongside foodservice professionals across all channels. They get a firsthand look into the demands of today’s commercial kitchens and hear directly from operations about what today’s consumers are seeking out.”

General Mills product launches in the cakes arena include a Raspberry Pistachio Brownie Trifle; and the Pillsbury Thaw & Serve Brownie and Thaw & Serve Chocolate Chip Blondie, either which can be used as a building block for a more complex dessert, or served as is.

Hornsby says Flowers has been working on bringing consumers new cake products, including a range of portable baked treats.

“We recently announced the expansion of our Wonder brand into the sweet baked goods category,” she says. “Wonder is a name that has been a household staple for generations, known for its soft, delicious breads that bring a sense of nostalgia and comfort. These new treats are all about fun, classic flavors in a convenient, on the go format. Whether it is a lunchbox snacks, an afternoon pick-me-up, or just a little indulgence, these treats will fit seamlessly into people's daily routines.”

Zupancic shares that Eli’s has a number of flavor innovations in the cake category to watch out for.

“For spring and summer, check out our new Strawberry Lemonade Cheesecake, made with sweet-tart housemade strawberry lemon curd,” she says. “Another nostalgic flavor is our new Banana Cream Cheesecake, our take on the classic pie.”

Additionally, Zupancic says, the company also is introducing items that play into increased interest in “charred and burnt flavor notes.”

“For fall and winter we're excited about our new White Chocolate Raspberry Brûlée Cheesecake, creamy white chocolate cheesecake swirled with raspberry puree, and brûléed on top for that craveable burnt sugar flavor. Also new this year is our S'Mores Cheesecake, which is hand-decorated with marshmallow fluff and torched to replicate that campfire flavor.”

Despite all the innovations producers keep unveiling with their cakes, Zupancic says, consumers still clamor for Eli’s classics like the Original Plain Cheesecake.

“It's the original Chicago-style cheesecake, richer and creamier than its New York counterpart, baked on an all-butter shortbread cookie crust instead of a graham crust,” she explains. “It’s made with slow-cultured cream cheese and sour cream, and Nielsen-Massey Madagascar vanilla, for our signature flavor. Plus, it's so versatile. It's delicious served plain, or with toppings added to create a signature dessert. The possibilities are endless.” SF&WB